My argument that people are lazy and leave the tv on after their favorite primetime show holds. I personally didn't understand (and still don't) your whole "you're special" argument, but let me see. I'm not like most people because I've got more education and toys than 90+% of the populace, so yeah, I guess I'm "special" in those respects. So what? It's probably best not to assume that our individual TV watching behavior matches with the masses, unless your IQ is the median, and if you are the median age, have a median income, live in Ohio or Pennsylvania, etc. etc. If that is you and you are not "special," than admit to it and I will concede every argument you make. If not, then stop acting like anyone posting here is a typical American TV viewer. It's ridiculous.
For your second "point," try to put yourself in the viewer's shoes at that time. What were their options? Leno, Letterman, and Arsenio Hall. None of those guys could touch Carson, but Letterman was too edgy to take his fanbase, and Hall had a different audience. The move from Leno to O'Brien is more extreme than the move from Carson to Leno, because anyone watching Carson understood Leno. Leno wasn't as funny or smart or good in any way, but he was easy to digest and was the easiest transition. Conan is edgier than Leno and has a particular sense of humor that the elderly or mentally challenged can't understand. Like I said before, it wouldn't surprise me if Conan would fail (if given a fair shake, which he wasn't), in part because of this.
For your last point, O'Brien had 7 months and most of those had Leno's lame ass leading in. He never had a real shot, period. You can refuse to take context into account all you want, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.