SnakeDoctor
Super Freak
It ain't "painful". Threads like that tend to be the most useful to the poster. The guy asked advice ... and he got it. That he didn't get the advice he expected made asking the question all the more valuable.
SnakeDoc
Which Hot Toys 1/ figure is least likely to depreciate?
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It ain't "painful". Threads like that tend to be the most useful to the poster. The guy asked advice ... and he got it. That he didn't get the advice he expected made asking the question all the more valuable.
SnakeDoc
I take your point.. however most 'investments' are actually gambling.. and require careful management of the purchase and sale of those investments, with continuous real time monitoring..the old 'buy low and sell high' trading ethos.. you can get a 'professional' company to do this for you, but then you get stung with all their 'transaction' and 'management' fees.. Wall Street is gambling, just because its in New York.. or London.. or Tokyo.. and not Las Vegas, makes no difference.
The only sound long term investment is property.. with two considerations -
1. Location.
2. The majority of the purchase price needs to be paid cash.. if you are funding it all with long term debt (mortgages) the returns are not in fact, quite so shmexy.
Toys are like any 'art' ..buy it because you like it, first and foremost.. everything else is cake.
Yep.
It will be interesting to see how Star Wars, Batman, Marvel fair in the future as every kid will grown up with that in the foreseeable future and eventually perhaps want to collect. But I doubt HT plastic will be able to survive the wait for the next generation's interest.
Probably the simplest answer to the thread creator's question: is there a comparable 1/6th toy from 10 years ago that commands big money now?
And I'm certain 10 years ago people were convincing themselves that certain figures were going to increase massively in the future -- like Sideshow's Jedi Luke or their deluxe LOTR line.
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lumadoxy
Freakzoid
I'm liable to say whichever figure has the lowest QC, or the highest possibility of something going wrong. Because then the numbers would be naturally culled over time, inflating the value of those that are left intact.
hennypenny
Super Freak
I've recently bought the DX09 Keaton Batman for over £200, and the rubber suit is already starting to disintegrate. Now, this is definitely a bad investment. My Joker 2.0 on the other hand is a good purchase because it come with so many accessories, including the diorama.
galmando
Super Freak
To me it is. Let's face it, it's mostly been negative towards the thread starter
These types of threads are rarely well received
franpincho
Super Freak
That doesn't mean his value will increase. It just means the materials are better. Or less complex.
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jacerc130
Super Freak
Just my 2 cents, which some may not think is even worth that but here it is:
The appreciation or depreciation value per say is all based on the demand for the figure and it's limited quantity. So basically a very limited figure that is fairly popular will most likely always hold it's value or go up. Assuming a 2.0 version is not released. Very recent case in point is the Celtic Predator. After this puppy sold out, it was common for people to pay $800. I remember people posting they got it for a "steal" at $400 plus on Ebay. Now with the 2.0 coming out, you can expect to be able to pick up the first version for less than $250.
My personal view is I buy want I like and what I want. Only a couple times have I decided I am over something and sell it. In those couple instances, I have made money from what I paid on them which is a bonus for me. But even if you don't make money on it consider this;
Say you buy a figure for $200 and 5 years later you are bored with it or don't care for it as much anymore so you sell it. And lets say the most you can get for it is $120. Did you lose money? Not really, you had 5 years of enjoying that figure and made about 70% of your money back off it. That is not a bad deal in my opinion. Just another way of looking at value and reselling value.
The appreciation or depreciation value per say is all based on the demand for the figure and it's limited quantity. So basically a very limited figure that is fairly popular will most likely always hold it's value or go up. Assuming a 2.0 version is not released. Very recent case in point is the Celtic Predator. After this puppy sold out, it was common for people to pay $800. I remember people posting they got it for a "steal" at $400 plus on Ebay. Now with the 2.0 coming out, you can expect to be able to pick up the first version for less than $250.
My personal view is I buy want I like and what I want. Only a couple times have I decided I am over something and sell it. In those couple instances, I have made money from what I paid on them which is a bonus for me. But even if you don't make money on it consider this;
Say you buy a figure for $200 and 5 years later you are bored with it or don't care for it as much anymore so you sell it. And lets say the most you can get for it is $120. Did you lose money? Not really, you had 5 years of enjoying that figure and made about 70% of your money back off it. That is not a bad deal in my opinion. Just another way of looking at value and reselling value.
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It's thinking like this that creates a bubble in the market and drives up prices.
1. Folks see a few figures going for 2, 3, 4X their original price on ebay, a few articles are written, and suddenly there's a potential to make money.
2. So they start buying some of the new figures with the expectation they will be able to flip in a year or two and double their investment.
3. At the same time more collectors are starting to buy due to improvements in quality and the addition of hot licenses like Batman, Iron Man and Avengers --effectively creating a perfect storm.
4. Hot Toys sees that more pieces are selling out so they increase production (these aren't numbered). They also start eeking up pricing possibly in part due to cost increases for materials and licensing fees, but mostly to test the market.
5. The company also goes back and re-releases updated and improved versions of some of their hotter figures like Iron Man Mark I, Batman, Terminator and Predator. These are scooped up by the newer entrants (like me) happy to not have to pay $1K for a Mark I or $2K for a Tumbler. Much to the dismay of both the early buyers who watched their investment figure shrink in value and folks who had paid astronomical secondary pricing a few month prior.
6. A special edition "limited" figure (Midas) is released in select markets at special promo events creating long lines, buying frenzy, and crazy prices in the secondary market. Thus confirming the appetite for hot promos. Panicked Iron Man collectors pay $600, $700+ for a Midas--some people buy thinking the market might go up even more. After months of remaining mum on the subject Sideshow puts Midas up for sale for a comparatively reasonable but still very high $299 (but hey, it's not $600 so it's a bargain).
7. Hot Toys not only makes serious bank with what is essentially a repaint, but continues to establish a new price point 50% higher than what they pieces were going for just a couple of years ago.
8. Eventually flippers realize they can't make any money trying to anticipate the market and collectors can't justify paying $300 for a figures that should be $200, so they become more selective or get out completely. Effectively "bursting" or at least "correcting" the 1/6 bubble.
9. At the same time other 1/6 companies come into the market with products on par Hot Toys quality-- and characters that are not Batman or Iron Man. Which creates more competition for the figure-buying dollar.
10. Hot Toys sees that fewer figures are selling so they first scale back production accordingly, toss in more gimmicks or exclusives until they find the "sweet spot" (rolling back prices is a last resort and at this point and unlikely because the margin is too good). Plus they have hot new licenses like GotG, Batman vs. Superman, Avengers 2, Justice League and Star Wars VII coming up, so it's a good time to be HT.
The moral of this story is, if you are looking to get into this hobby to chase investment potential, you're at least three years too late. You might make a few bucks here or there, but that ship has mostly sailed. If you are looking to get in to collect high quality 1/6 figures you're maybe a year or so behind, but your timing is still pretty good, and maybe down the road your figures will be worth something, but maybe not.
1. Folks see a few figures going for 2, 3, 4X their original price on ebay, a few articles are written, and suddenly there's a potential to make money.
2. So they start buying some of the new figures with the expectation they will be able to flip in a year or two and double their investment.
3. At the same time more collectors are starting to buy due to improvements in quality and the addition of hot licenses like Batman, Iron Man and Avengers --effectively creating a perfect storm.
4. Hot Toys sees that more pieces are selling out so they increase production (these aren't numbered). They also start eeking up pricing possibly in part due to cost increases for materials and licensing fees, but mostly to test the market.
5. The company also goes back and re-releases updated and improved versions of some of their hotter figures like Iron Man Mark I, Batman, Terminator and Predator. These are scooped up by the newer entrants (like me) happy to not have to pay $1K for a Mark I or $2K for a Tumbler. Much to the dismay of both the early buyers who watched their investment figure shrink in value and folks who had paid astronomical secondary pricing a few month prior.
6. A special edition "limited" figure (Midas) is released in select markets at special promo events creating long lines, buying frenzy, and crazy prices in the secondary market. Thus confirming the appetite for hot promos. Panicked Iron Man collectors pay $600, $700+ for a Midas--some people buy thinking the market might go up even more. After months of remaining mum on the subject Sideshow puts Midas up for sale for a comparatively reasonable but still very high $299 (but hey, it's not $600 so it's a bargain).
7. Hot Toys not only makes serious bank with what is essentially a repaint, but continues to establish a new price point 50% higher than what they pieces were going for just a couple of years ago.
8. Eventually flippers realize they can't make any money trying to anticipate the market and collectors can't justify paying $300 for a figures that should be $200, so they become more selective or get out completely. Effectively "bursting" or at least "correcting" the 1/6 bubble.
9. At the same time other 1/6 companies come into the market with products on par Hot Toys quality-- and characters that are not Batman or Iron Man. Which creates more competition for the figure-buying dollar.
10. Hot Toys sees that fewer figures are selling so they first scale back production accordingly, toss in more gimmicks or exclusives until they find the "sweet spot" (rolling back prices is a last resort and at this point and unlikely because the margin is too good). Plus they have hot new licenses like GotG, Batman vs. Superman, Avengers 2, Justice League and Star Wars VII coming up, so it's a good time to be HT.
The moral of this story is, if you are looking to get into this hobby to chase investment potential, you're at least three years too late. You might make a few bucks here or there, but that ship has mostly sailed. If you are looking to get in to collect high quality 1/6 figures you're maybe a year or so behind, but your timing is still pretty good, and maybe down the road your figures will be worth something, but maybe not.
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i know right, i read that a while ago, reading stuff like that just makes me wana sell everything i have 
Whoever believes when this runs it's course that we will recoup the money spent is in for a rude awakening. Today we can sell a figure for $200 tomorrow it could be worth $20....part of the game. 
JacktheRipper
Super Freak
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I'm not talking retailers, if you're just some schmo like the rest of us that collect.
Short term: You'll probably make a profit. Nothing that will sustain a living.
Long term: Don't quit your day job.
Short term: You'll probably make a profit. Nothing that will sustain a living.
Long term: Don't quit your day job.
Boba Ben
Super Freak
It's very likely that they're all gonna depreciate. I don't think the high end 1/6 trend is going to last forever.
Whoever believes when this runs it's course that we will recoup the money spent is in for a rude awakening. Today we can sell a figure for $200 tomorrow it could be worth $20....part of the game.
Hmmm.. I take the point you are making.. however retail pricing has an effect.. the higher the retail price, the less likely sellers will want to accept a major hit on that retail price at resale for quite some time after purchase, if it's a mint, sold out, desirable figure in a collectors market, unless something else has changed.. for example a new, improved version coming out.. owner forced to sell at short notice, etc.
If you paid $150 retail for a Hot Toys figure a year ago, you are extremely unlikely to want to sell it for $15 tomorrow, even New Goblin..well ok, maybe New Goblin...
The difference I think with Comics is this.. were retailers selling new comics at $300?
..that said, however -
Hmmm.. I take the point you are making.. however retail pricing has an effect.. the higher the retail price, the less likely sellers will want to accept a major hit on that retail price at resale for quite some time after purchase, if it's a mint, sold out, desirable figure in a collectors market, unless something else has changed.. for example a new, improved version coming out.. owner forced to sell at short notice, etc.
If you paid $150 retail for a Hot Toys figure a year ago, you are extremely unlikely to want to sell it for $15 tomorrow, even New Goblin..well ok, maybe New Goblin...
New Goblin.....ha. It was an extreme point however, IMO a valid point. When to bottom falls out of this hobby and it will the likelihood of a collector getting their original investment back will be slim. While maybe not as extreme as my example but in the end money gone out the window. Part of the charm of this hobby
New Goblin.....ha. It was an extreme point however, IMO a valid point. When to bottom falls out of this hobby and it will the likelihood of a collector getting their original investment back will be slim. While maybe not as extreme as my example but in the end money gone out the window. Part of the charm of this hobby
I certainly agree with you on secondary market pricing.. but I think this type of collecting is becoming more popular in general because its fun, its easy to get into and there is a ready means to trade the figures.. I think there may be a slight (ok, very slight) parallel with the collectors car / bike market.. there are peaks and troughs in pricing.. certain models become very desirable and then are replaced by other models.. but the market as a whole, doesn't disappear.
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