My 1st Oscar picks...

So, I'm totally obsessed with all things Oscar. It is so fun (for me) to follow buzz and pick who I think will be nom'd and then get up at 5 the morning of the announcements and see how I did (usually pretty good!)
So as buzz has finally started to generate, I decided to put together my list as it stands now. This WILL CHANGE (maybe tomorrow.. maybe later today) but as it stands right now... here they are.

(NOTE: This is the first time in at least five years where everything is pretty much open. There are hardly ANY locks in ANY category right now.. and those that are locks are loose at best)


Best Picture:
Memoirs of A Geisha
The New World
Jarhead
Munich
Good Night and Good Luck
(with Brokeback Mountain and Match Point close behind)

Best Director:
Terrance Malick - A New World
Sam Mendes - Jarhead
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
Steven Spielberg - Munich
Rob Marshall - Memoirs of a Geisha

Best Actor:
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
David Strathairn - Good Night and Good Luck
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Nathan Lane - The Producers

Best Actress:
Zizi Zhang - Memoirs of a Geisha
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
Julianne Moore - The Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio
Dame Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents

Best Supporting Actor:
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Peter Saarsgard - Jarhead
Terrance Howard - Crash
Bob Hoskins - Mrs. Henderson Presents

Best Supporting Actress:
Patricia Clarkson - Good Night and Good Luck
Scarlet Joahnsson - Match Point
Frances McDormand - North Country
Uma Thurman - The Producers
Toni Collette - In Her Shoes

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen - Match Point
The New World - Terrance Malick
Paul Haggis - Crash
Tony Kushner - Munich
Jim Jarmusch - Broken Flowers

Best Adapted Screenplay
Akiva Goldsman - Memoirs of a Geisha
Steve Martin - Shopgirl
William Broyles - Jarhead
Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana - Brokeback Mountain
Susanna Grant - In Her Shoes

Best Documentary
March of the Penguins
Murderball
Grizzly Man
Mad Hot Ballroom
Inside Deep Throat

Best Animated Feature
Corpse Bride
Wallace and Grommit: The Case of the Were-Rabbit
Howl's Moving Castle

I would think that Crash would get a best picture nod, as might the Constant Gardener.

Do you think that Proof may generate any buzz, it has a great cast?

Hey L4P do you know somthing we don't? These movies aren't even out yet
I am waiting to see Jarhead since the previews I have seen look great. Hey LOTRFan I saw Crash last week and while it was good, to me the way the story was told was exactly like "Magnolia" If you have never seen it pick it up you will see what I mean. Only difference is that Magnolia is about loss and Crash is about racisim.

I've not heard of, or seen any of those films. (well apart from Crash, which was a pretty cool movie)

2005 really been that bad?

Well...

John... Crash has several things working against it, most noteable is the fact that it came out so early in the year (it is hard for a film to sustain buzz that lasts throughout the Oscar season, though some films do (Silence of the Lambs, Gladiator, etc). Also, Crash IS very similar to Magnolia in set-up and such, though it is still one of the best reviewed films this year. The problem again is that there are SO MANY high caliber Oscar movies that haven't even been released yet, that their buzz will drown out the little buzz Crash still has going for it. However, you can pretty much garantee a writing nod (possibly a win) and seeing as how Terrance Howard is this years break out star, a nod for him in the supporitng category seems fitting.

As for Proof, the only things that seems likely to come out of it is another Best Actress nomination for Gwyeneth Paltrow (and that is very likely) and a long overdue nomination for Hope Davis in the supporting category. The remaining cast (especially Jake) have other films that outweigh or cancel out their involvement in this film. And I just don't see it getting any big awards.

Haha.. One of Nine.. nope, i'm as clueless as anyone. However, as I said, I do LOVE Oscar season and follow it each year from February to February and knowing how the acedemy goes, what films are on the horizon and who is involved with them (also what early reviews or reports reveal) it is "easy" to whittle down a select group of films that will be nominated each year. HOWEVER, the past couple years have been FAR TOO PREDICTABLE. This year, there is NO FRONTRUNNER in ANY category, and hardly any locks. I expect that will change in the coming months when these films open and box office, critical acclaim and merit will help make things clearer.

And yes, IMO, 2005 HAS been a fairly awful year thus far. HOWEVER, these next few months should be GREAT!

Wow, I hope all the Academy noms aren't boring movies. No Harry Potter? No Batman Begins? Pffttt

That's a good list L4P. I'm a big movie nut, but I haven't been keeping up nearly as much as I used to. I didn't even realize Munich was coming out this year (thought it was '06) or that Jarhead was even being made into a movie (always wanted to read the book).

Of the ones on your list the one that I'm looking forward to the most would probably be the new Malick film. I'm sure that one will be a lock in the Best Cinematography category. He truly has an eye for beautiful images like I've never seen before, outside of possibly Stanley Kubrick. Malick's movies are just gorgeous to look at.

Malick's movies are just gorgeous to look at.

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As long as you don't expect anything to actually happen...

Am thinking that "History of Violence" may get some buzz...especially for Cronenberg. And you gotta admit, the studios don't really pull out the stops and field their Oscar-"worthy" pieces until around Oct-Dec. Have a feeling LOTS of stuff will overtake most of what you've listed.

Wetanut said:

Am thinking that "History of Violence" may get some buzz...especially for Cronenberg. And you gotta admit, the studios don't really pull out the stops and field their Oscar-"worthy" pieces until around Oct-Dec. Have a feeling LOTS of stuff will overtake most of what you've listed.

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History of Violence does have buzz going for it.. Particularly for Viggo, Ed Harris and Maria Bello. As far as picture/director/screenplay, we'll have to see how well it does at the B.O. and with the critics, but I doubt it will hold up against other prestige pics.

And as far as LOTS of stuff overtaking these films... most of these films DO open in Oct-Dec.. in fact, most open in December. These are the creme de la creme in buzz right now. But there are a lot of pics waiting in the wings also. I am 100% sure that this list will look different in the coming months, but that is part of the fun. Adapting to the changes.

And no, Batman Begins and Harry Potter won't find themselves in any of the categories above (doesn't mean they shouldn't be.. just won't). Though they could both pic up some tech nominations.

I am no movie expert (or at least not in following the critics), but I thought some of the cinematography in Batman was just amazing, particularly the beginning. The same could be said for Kingdom of Heaven, about the only positive I can think of.

Winged Shadows said:

I've not heard of, or seen any of those films.

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I'm with ya there ! I've heard of Wallace and Grommit but not that film either

I think I need to get out more

Shell
x

Oh I missed Wallace and Gromit there! I only ever watched the previous films on TV, so am not sure how it'll feel on the Big screen.

I noticed no one has mentioned Lord of War (Nic Cage). Those that have seen it, couldn't praise the film and Cage's performance enough. The trailer looked good.

Darklord Dave said:

As long as you don't expect anything to actually happen...

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LOL Very true in certain cases. I've read The Thin Red Line book, and it's absolutely nothing at all like the film. While the movie dragged on waaay too long, it was still a memorable experience for me. I guess I just love the "artsy-fartsy" type stuff. My grandfather fought in the battle of Guadalcanal, so that story has a certain appeal to me. I'm sure he would have thought the movie was complete BS though.

Re:

To me, I view Malick's films like visual poetry (which is to say... if you aren't a fan of poems, chances are, you won't be a fan of his films). I found "The Thin Red Line to be one of the best of the 90's Behind "Pulp Fiction," "Goodfellas," "Magnolia" and "The Truman Show." But different strokes for different folks...

I liked the "Thin Red Line," but then again I wasn't expecting "Saving Private Ryan." The latter totally overshadowed Line, and sadly the two were compared, when they really shouldn't have been.

King Kong for sure! and Chronicles of Narnia! They need to get something! Otherwise, I'll jsut skip the awards this year

Beruthiel said:

King Kong for sure! and Chronicles of Narnia! They need to get something! Otherwise, I'll jsut skip the awards this year

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Well I would certianly anticipate Kong and Chronicles getting many technicle nominations (i.e. FX, sound, production design, etc...) but I don't see either of these scoring big at all. Remember, before LOTR, fantasy films were never big awards players. LOTR has opened up doors... but even so, they would both have to be AMAZING in order to score big.

Peter Jackson himself said, before ROTK won the award that he really hopes it does, and would really like to win himself because it isn't like he was going to get a chance with King Kong. Still, award shows aren't the be all end all... and I too can't wait for these films (especially Kong!)

Best Picture:
Memoirs of A Geisha - I haven't heard much of anything on this film yet though I know it's coming out in the fall/winter film season. Based on a best selling book so perhaps it will do well at the box office.
The New World - Did we really need another film like this? That has been my thoughts when I've read anything or seen clips from this film. Frankly I'll be very surprised if this one makes into the best picture category. Then again I've been surprised in the past.Jarhead - Now here is a film I've heard good, good things about.
Munich - Haven't heard of it.
Good Night and Good Luck - Another I haven't heard of.
(with Brokeback Mountain and Match Point close behind)
I would think even Cinderella Man might end up being nominated since it did get such good buzz and is supposedly a great film (I've never seen it) but it was released so early so it will more than likely be overlooked.
Best Director:
Terrance Malick - A New World - Possible...I'm still not convinced this film will be good even in the director dept.
Sam Mendes - Jarhead - I agree
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain - Perhaps
Steven Spielberg - Munich - Well it is Steven Spielberg.
Rob Marshall - Memoirs of a Geisha - I wouldn't be surprised.
Maybe Ron Howard for Cinderella Man.
Perhaps Peter Jackson for King Kong though most likely that won't happen.

Best Actor:
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line - I agree 100% and from what I've read and seen he would deserve it.
David Strathairn - Good Night and Good Luck - Never heard of this film
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain - Can't say...the film just doesn't look interesting enough for me to spend money on.
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote - Never heard of this film
Nathan Lane - The Producers - Possible...very possible.

Best Actress:
Zizi Zhang - Memoirs of a Geisha - Have to wait and see how this film is on the acting end.
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica - Haven't heard of it.
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line - Perhaps though she's never blown me away as an acress but who knows perhaps she'll pull off an amazing performance.
Julianne Moore - The Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio - Haven't heard of it.
Dame Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents - Haven't heard of it.

Best Supporting Actor:
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain - Can't say
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man - I wouldn't doubt he would be nominated for his role in the film...I heard nothing but good things.
Peter Saarsgard - Jarhead - Can't say
Terrance Howard - Crash - Can't way
Bob Hoskins - Mrs. Henderson Presents - Can't say

Best Supporting Actress:
Patricia Clarkson - Good Night and Good Luck - Can't say
Scarlet Joahnsson - Match Point - Can't say
Frances McDormand - North Country - Can't say
Uma Thurman - The Producers - knowing the part she will be playing I'm not sure if it's even nomination worthy.
Toni Collette - In Her Shoes - Can't say

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen - Match Point - Can't say
The New World - Terrance Malick - See my original thoughts on this film hehe
Paul Haggis - Crash - I agree 100%
Tony Kushner - Munich - Can't say
Jim Jarmusch - Broken Flowers - I agree 100%

Best Adapted Screenplay
Akiva Goldsman - Memoirs of a Geisha - I agree 100%
Steve Martin - Shopgirl- I agree 100%
William Broyles - Jarhead- I agree 100%
Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana - Brokeback Mountain - Can't say
Susanna Grant - In Her Shoes - Can't say

Best Documentary
March of the Penguins - I agree though I've heard it might end up in the best foreign film category instead of best documentary category.
Murderball - I agree 100%
Grizzly Man - Can't say
Mad Hot Ballroom - I agree 100%
Inside Deep Throat - I agree 100%

Best Animated Feature
Corpse Bride - I agree 100%
Wallace and Grommit: The Case of the Were-Rabbit - I agree 100%
Howl's Moving Castle - I agree 100%

I've always liked the other tech categories and such so....

Best Score
Howard Shore - King Kong
Hans Zimmer, James Newton Howard - Batman Begins
Harry Gregson-Williams - The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (maybe)
John Williams - Harry Potter (though with that new rule that may not happen...depends how much "new" music material is in the film)

King Kong, LWW, SW, Batman Begins, HP and War of the Worlds will most likely be in many of the Best Costume, Best FX, Best sound categories as well.

Good grief it's been a horrible year in film. The fall brings me some hope (Kong, Narnia, Everything is Illuminated and few others) but not much.

Re:

Thanks for all the comments CAHobbit!

Just to help you (and others) out a little.. I'll post links to trailers to some of the films most people haven't heard about that I think look amazing and are getting great buzz.

Frist, Good Night and Good Luck. This is a movie Directed by George Clooney that deals with the scare of Communism set during the McCarthy era and dealing with the blacklisted names of those supposebly having ties with the Communist Party. The film looks SO good and won the Venice Film Festival (beating out the favorite to win, "Brokeback Mountain."

https://mp3content03.bcst.yahoo.com/b02r01/005/yahoomovies/11/17817011.mov

As for "The New World," as I said earlier, Malick isn't for everyone. However, he is a man that the business respects (even though he plays by NONE of their rules). He makes a film every decade, and judging by the trailer for this one, this looks amazing. At first, I thought the same. Why do we need to hear this story AGAIN!!?!? Then I realized, I'd never actually heard the real story or seen a movie dealing with this subject done well. I can't wait for this.

https://www.movie-list.net/exclusive/new-world-trl-720.mov

"Brokeback Mountain," based on the Pulitzer Prize winning short story, directed by the celebrated Ang Lee and has great buzz.

https://mp3content01.bcst.yahoo.com/b02r01/003/yahoomovies/13/17847441.mov

"Jarhead" MAN am I excited about this film!!!! I LOVED both of Sam Mendes' last two films, and this just looks soooo good!

https://mp3content02.bcst.yahoo.com/b02r01/004/yahoomovies/1/17384545.mov

As for Munich, no trailer yet. But this is slated for a late December release. It is crazy to think that Spielberg only started shooting this a couple months ago and is already finished. The story shows the tragic aftermath of the 1972 Munich Olympics, a Mossad agent (Eric Bana, also strong buzz for a Best Actor nom...) tracks Palestinian terrorists who assassinated Israeli athletes. This film is controversial, timely and its directed by Spielberg.. what more does it need?

To briefly (i'll try!) sum up some other things...

Philip Seymour Hoffman... Plays realy life novelist Truman Capote, and follows the process of his now infamous novel "In Cold Blood." Hoffman has often been called the greatest actor of his generation never to be nominated and from all early reviews, he is nothing short of amazing here.

https://www.sonypictures.com/classics/syndication/trailers/capote/Capote_trl_300.mov

Felicity Huffman (you may know her as Lynette on Desperate Housewives) plays a Woman post op sex change who comes to discover she fathered a child while she was a man. Completey unrognizable with a juicy complicated character.... Oscar loves powerful performances from strong actresses that uglifiy themselves (see Nicole Kidman and Charlize Theron).

It is unfortunate that "Ray' came out last year, otherwise Juaquin Phoenix would pretty much have a win locked... but will the Acedemy REALLY want to award the Best Actor Award to a person playing a famous deceased musician in a bioptic two years in a row? Doubtful... However.. both he and Reese Witherspoon do look amazing in this (and HE IS ACTUALLY SINGING!!!!!!!!)

https://www.apple.com/trailers/fox/walk_the_line/large.html