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Patient X

Patient X

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Hi everyone. I haven't been here for a while or even actively involved in the online collecting community for some time. Over a year ago, I was heavily involved in a statue collecting site that unfortunately no longer exists due to several unfortunate reasons (none of which I'll get into now). Part of that was a statue price guide that I built, and I *hated* that the work I'd done on it was completely lost.

Over the last several months I've been rebuilding the platform, and for starters I have put together a complete Hot Toys price guide at https://www.collectht.com. This site doesn't have some of the functionality that my previous site had (collection tracker, marketplace), but it contains detailed sales dating back to March of 2014 on over 400 Hot Toys items. I update it on a daily basis, so it's the absolute best way to get current and past market history on HT figures. Of course there are full image galleries and detailed information on nearly every item as well.

I hope you'll give it a look and I welcome any feedback. Thanks for listening! :)

John

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I may be in a minority here, but i think this kind of thing encourages scalpers and ultimately drives prices up. Following the announcement of the Ripley Alien figure, i'm now on the lookout for a Big Chap Alien, but there's now way, i'm going to pay that price in your list. It may be an accurate valuation, but sellers will see that, and expect not a penny less. It completely removes the possibility of scoring a bargain. It might be very useful for sellers, but bad news for buyers, and as most true collectors are buyers rather than sellers, it's ultimately going to hurt them more. People that buy, just to resell to make a big profit, aren't true collectors.

This is just my opinion of course, so feel free to disagree.
 
Thanks for the feedback, Marine Boy. I see your point, but I can't say I agree complete. The term "scalper" doesn't even apply to a figure like the Big Chap Alien. That figure came out five years ago and has been long out of production, so it's not like sellers are buying up current store stock with the sole purpose of reselling them the way a scalper would. That might apply for newer released figures, but looking at newer items in the guide will show you that virtually everything released within the last several months is at or below retail. From that point of view, I'd say if I was a scalper it would deter me knowing that I will more than likely lose money.

As a buyer, I think it's a fantastic tool. I can look at eBay right now and see that the lowest Buy It Now is $565. Maybe I'm on the fence about spending that much. The guide shows me:

- It's trending upward, so $565 might be the best I'll get for a while
- An auction ended at $345 just a week ago, so if I'm patient I can possibly get it for a heck of a lot less

And let's pretend for a minute that one shows up with a $400 BIN. If I know these are consistently going for $500+, a simple glance at the guide will tell you that odds are you'd better jump on that right away. :)

I think the big thing here is when you say "there's no way i'm going to pay that price in your list". I get that 100%. You might not be willing to pay that much (and either am I, really), but obviously many are, and the current market dictates that we're either going to have to pay it, be patient and hope for a better deal, or skip out until the market on this item takes a downturn.

Good feedback, keep it coming!

John
 
Marine Boy said:
I may be in a minority here, but i think this kind of thing encourages scalpers and ultimately drives prices up. Following the announcement of the Ripley Alien figure, i'm now on the lookout for a Big Chap Alien, but there's now way, i'm going to pay that price in your list. It may be an accurate valuation, but sellers will see that, and expect not a penny less. It completely removes the possibility of scoring a bargain. It might be very useful for sellers, but bad news for buyers, and as most true collectors are buyers rather than sellers, it's ultimately going to hurt them more. People that buy, just to resell to make a big profit, aren't true collectors.

This is just my opinion of course, so feel free to disagree.
Click to expand...

I do agree with what you say, it's a double-edged sword. It's useful to see an upper price point of what one shouldn't be paying over. It's tricky as well when a bunch of people are speculating on price before something is released and I wonder if Sideshow are looking at the thread and thinking 'wow, they're willing to pay that much? Yeah, let's price it at that!'
Mind you I remember before Sideshow was the main North America distributor and the Aliens Hot Toys figs first came out at $85. That was what, 8 years ago. The difference in quality released now in the figs is like night and day. The days at figures being priced for that are long gone but I wonder if the retail prices for newer releases have gotten a little out of hand. Everyone is bound to have different thoughts about it though.
 
Patient X said:
Thanks for the feedback, Marine Boy. I see your point, but I can't say I agree complete. The term "scalper" doesn't even apply to a figure like the Big Chap Alien. That figure came out five years ago and has been long out of production, so it's not like sellers are buying up current store stock with the sole purpose of reselling them the way a scalper would. That might apply for newer released figures, but looking at newer items in the guide will show you that virtually everything released within the last several months is at or below retail. From that point of view, I'd say if I was a scalper it would deter me knowing that I will more than likely lose money.

As a buyer, I think it's a fantastic tool. I can look at eBay right now and see that the lowest Buy It Now is $565. Maybe I'm on the fence about spending that much. The guide shows me:

- It's trending upward, so $565 might be the best I'll get for a while
- An auction ended at $345 just a week ago, so if I'm patient I can possibly get it for a heck of a lot less

And let's pretend for a minute that one shows up with a $400 BIN. If I know these are consistently going for $500+, a simple glance at the guide will tell you that odds are you'd better jump on that right away. :)

I think the big thing here is when you say "there's no way i'm going to pay that price in your list". I get that 100%. You might not be willing to pay that much (and either am I, really), but obviously many are, and the current market dictates that we're either going to have to pay it, be patient and hope for a better deal, or skip out until the market on this item takes a downturn.

Good feedback, keep it coming!

John
Click to expand...

All good points. I'll likely refer to it on the 'Buy It Now' items myself.
 
Interesting. Would love if you had a collection tracker too. Please let us know when.
 
Wow, looks exhaustive. Well done , man. I like seeing more stuff like this on thw forum. Like the all the different indexes someone made like the HT Batman and HT Iron Man ones. Now we have a price quide. To be honest, I probably won't have much use for it but I bet others will. One of the mods should make it a sticky. :)
 
Very nice. This strikes me as a potentially useful tool for insurance purposes (e.g., replacement cost).
 
Rydeck said:
Very nice. This strikes me as a potentially useful tool for insurance purposes (e.g., replacement cost).
Click to expand...

THAT is a very good idea. I'd never thought of the insurance side of things....

EDIT: I just had a look at the site properly and yeah, it's great. As someone trying to get back into Hot Toys collecting after a 5 year break it is really useful even if it's just to see what has been released previously. Really nice work, well done and thanks.
 
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The downside I would see for collectors is there is no reflection of the figures that aren't selling, what I mean by that is on ebay people seem now to just be out for profit nothing else and there are figures on there that have literally been for sale for years....yes years.. I have followed some sellers outrageous prices and watched the figures be relisted and relisted and relisted the longest bring almost two years before I became bored following it.

For every figure that sells for some silly price there are probably 20+ that aren't selling and wont for months and months if ever because sellers are taking the p*** by asking to much so tracking the price that things are selling for does not give an accurate picture of what things are acctually worth and does artificially inflate the price.
 
This is an incredibly valuable tool that if it keeps current I can see being referenced all the time. One of the most asked questions on this forum is "what's it worth?" As long as the prices are actual, realized final sale prices and not just asking prices it will be referenced all the time.
 
First, thanks to everyone again for the kind words and the feedback. :)

murdomac said:
For every figure that sells for some silly price there are probably 20+ that aren't selling and wont for months and months if ever because sellers are taking the p*** by asking to much so tracking the price that things are selling for does not give an accurate picture of what things are acctually worth and does artificially inflate the price.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure I follow, at least not how these auctions don't give an actual picture of what they're "worth". Any listings that do not sell are not included in this guide, and therefore have no bearing whatsoever on the estimated value that the guide calculates. Let me know if I'm missing what you're saying.

Darklord Dave said:
This is an incredibly valuable tool that if it keeps current I can see being referenced all the time. One of the most asked questions on this forum is "what's it worth?" As long as the prices are actual, realized final sale prices and not just asking prices it will be referenced all the time.
Click to expand...

You bet - they are actual final prices of only sold items, including the final best offer price, NOT the original asking price.

John
 
Rydeck said:
Very nice. This strikes me as a potentially useful tool for insurance purposes (e.g., replacement cost).
Click to expand...
First thing that popped into my head. :goodpost:

If it's up to date it's a great asset, nice work and hope you stay on top of it without losing your sanity.
 
I think the guy who did toytracker.net used a program that scraped eBay for listings. That way it didn't need too much maintenance. I can see trying to keep up on this manually as being a daunting task.
 
This is a really neat tool. Good if nothing else to see all of the figures produced with photos. Lots of hard work put in for sure.

The comment I would have for the figure values is the possibility to have a sealed value as well. For most BINs and auctions the sealed units will sell for about 20% higher on most I see. Perhaps like sports cards with mint/ near mint have a average and a sealed price.

Great job though overall! :clap
 
Great website :clap, I will be on this lots.
Its interesting to see most Hot Toys figures initially lose money on the after market but eventually I guess when they come more hard to come by they start going up in price.
 
Great site! I'll definitely keep checking it out. I agree that a "My Collection" page would be awesome to keep a running tally of what my collection is worth.
 
Thanks everyone! I am going to put together the collection tracking area again at some point, but that was a bit of a toughie to build and might be a little while before I get around to it. It's definitely on the radar, though!
 

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